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Yesterday's Board
Strikeout projections · Saturday, May 2, 2026
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Table density
| Time | Lineup Status | Pitcher | Opponent | Pitcher Hand | Pitcher Tier | Leash | Baseline Ks (Median) | Mean Ks | Mode Ks | Strikeout Line | Main Line Over | Main Line Under | Best Edge Side | Distribution Shape Score | Model P(O) | Model P(U) | Main Line Best Edge (deVig) | Odds +1 | Odds +2 | P(K ≥ +1) | P(K ≥ +2) | P(K ≥ +3) | P(K ≥ +4) | Odds +1 Edge (VIG) | Odds +2 Edge (VIG) | Split Influence Level | Right Tail Mass % | Expected CRPS (x100) | Ceiling Conversion Confidence | Ceiling Profile | Tail Environment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed | Kyle Bradish | NYY | R | Mid | S-M | 5 | 5.56 | 5 | 5.5 | -121 | 100 | UNDER | 49 | 47.95% | 52.05% | 4.32% | 164 | 321 | 32.39%, +209 | 16.01%, +525 | 11.34% | 5.93% | -5.49% | -7.74% | Boost | 20.01% | 0.41499 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Ryan Weathers | BAL | L | Elite | M | 6 | 6.56 | 6 | 6.5 | 116 | -140 | OVER | 52 | 48.20% | 51.80% | 3.95% | 225 | 430 | 33.76%, +196 | 17.50%, +471 | 13.16% | 7.36% | 2.99% | -1.36% | Damp | 21.88% | 0.15666 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Dylan Cease | TOR | R | Elite | M | 7 | 6.73 | 6 | 6.5 | -128 | 117 | UNDER | 56 | 50.25% | 49.75% | 4.67% | 168 | 320 | 36.49%, +174 | 19.85%, +404 | 15.84% | 9.51% | -0.82% | -3.96% | Boost | 24.81% | 0.18546 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Connor Prielipp | MIN | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.33 | 4 | 4.5 | 119 | -152 | OVER | 44 | 43.44% | 56.56% | 0.35% | 261 | 548 | 26.93%, +271 | 14.23%, +603 | 7.53% | 3.44% | -0.77% | -1.20% | Damp | 14.98% | 1.36262 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Ryne Nelson | CHC | R | Low | M | 5 | 4.91 | 4 | 4.5 | 106 | -125 | OVER | 54 | 54.16% | 45.84% | 7.53% | 228 | 472 | 36.84%, +171 | 18.14%, +451 | 12.67% | 6.47% | 6.35% | 0.65% | Neutral | 22.67% | 0.77653 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Shota Imanaga | ARI | L | Mid | L | 5 | 4.98 | 4 | 4.5 | -158 | 126 | UNDER | 56 | 55.32% | 44.68% | 2.74% | 136 | 290 | 37.99%, +163 | 18.90%, +429 | 13.35% | 6.89% | -4.38% | -6.75% | Neutral | 23.62% | 0.72837 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Kyle Harrison | WSH | L | Mid | M | 6 | 5.92 | 5 | 5.5 | 104 | -124 | OVER | 57 | 53.92% | 46.08% | 6.95% | 220 | 410 | 38.10%, +162 | 19.78%, +406 | 14.76% | 8.15% | 6.85% | 0.17% | Neutral | 24.72% | 0.29198 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Foster Griffin | MIL | L | Low | M | 5 | 5.20 | 5 | 4.5 | -150 | 124 | OVER | 65 | 59.18% | 40.82% | 1.84% | 142 | 300 | 41.92%, +139 | 23.72%, +321 | 15.80% | 8.48% | 0.60% | -1.28% | Neutral | 15.80% | 0.58463 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) | |
| Confirmed | Rhett Lowder | PIT | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.36 | 4 | 4.5 | 118 | -151 | OVER | 34 | 44.09% | 55.91% | 0.83% | 255 | 537 | 27.50%, +264 | 7.70%, +1200 | 7.79% | 3.59% | -0.67% | -8.00% | Neutral | 15.39% | 1.31826 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Carmen Mlodzinski | CIN | R | Low | S | 5 | 4.77 | 4 | 4.5 | -122 | -103 | UNDER | 51 | 51.68% | 48.32% | 0.31% | 172 | 360 | 34.45%, +190 | 16.58%, +503 | 11.31% | 5.63% | -2.31% | -5.16% | Neutral | 20.72% | 0.88810 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Slade Cecconi | ATH | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.16 | 4 | 3.5 | -138 | 111 | OVER | 58 | 59.47% | 40.53% | 4.45% | 164 | 360 | 40.19%, +149 | 19.33%, +417 | 13.00% | 6.31% | 2.31% | -2.41% | Neutral | 13.00% | 1.60438 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Jacob Lopez | CLE | R | Low | S | 4 | 4.60 | 4 | 4.5 | 120 | -136 | OVER | 39 | 48.50% | 51.50% | 4.40% | 258 | 541 | 31.46%, +218 | 9.19%, +989 | 9.72% | 4.69% | 3.53% | -6.42% | Slight Boost | 18.37% | 1.05092 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Andrew Painter | MIA | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.45 | 4 | 4.5 | 126 | -161 | OVER | 36 | 45.71% | 54.29% | 3.94% | 275 | 588 | 28.93%, +246 | 8.23%, +1116 | 8.46% | 3.97% | 2.26% | -6.31% | Neutral | 16.45% | 1.21357 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Max Meyer | PHI | R | Mid | S-M | 5 | 4.92 | 4 | 4.5 | -160 | 125 | UNDER | 55 | 54.39% | 45.61% | 3.67% | 134 | 271 | 37.07%, +170 | 18.29%, +447 | 12.80% | 6.55% | -5.67% | -8.67% | Slight Damp | 22.86% | 0.76659 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Spencer Arrighetti | BOS | R | Mid | M-L | 6 | 5.77 | 5 | 5.5 | 108 | -136 | OVER | 54 | 51.48% | 48.52% | 6.00% | 225 | 450 | 35.72%, +180 | 18.18%, +450 | 13.29% | 7.18% | 4.95% | -0.01% | Neutral | 22.72% | 0.33776 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Connelly Early | HOU | L | Low | S-M | 5 | 4.97 | 4 | 4.5 | -104 | -119 | OVER | 56 | 55.27% | 44.73% | 6.86% | 210 | 430 | 37.94%, +164 | 18.86%, +430 | 13.32% | 6.88% | 5.68% | 0.00% | Damp | 23.58% | 0.73040 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Landen Roupp | TB | R | Mid | M-L | 5 | 5.47 | 5 | 5.5 | 124 | -159 | OVER | 39 | 46.54% | 53.46% | 4.44% | 290 | 630 | 31.09%, +222 | 9.49%, +954 | 10.63% | 5.48% | 5.45% | -4.21% | Damp | 18.98% | 0.44995 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Roki Sasaki | STL | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.36 | 4 | 4.5 | -105 | -114 | UNDER | 34 | 44.13% | 55.87% | 4.89% | 203 | 429 | 27.53%, +263 | 7.71%, +1197 | 7.81% | 3.60% | -5.47% | -11.19% | Neutral | 15.42% | 1.31537 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Michael McGreevy | LAD | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.01 | 3 | 3.5 | -115 | -110 | OVER | 54 | 56.67% | 43.33% | 6.15% | 198 | 434 | 37.33%, +168 | 17.45%, +473 | 11.39% | 5.36% | 3.77% | -1.28% | Slight Damp | 11.39% | 1.85000 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Kumar Rocker | DET | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.44 | 4 | 3.5 | -155 | 122 | OVER | 69 | 64.52% | 35.48% | 7.08% | 144 | 314 | 45.60%, +119 | 25.37%, +294 | 16.38% | 8.42% | 4.62% | 1.22% | Damp | 16.38% | 1.22042 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) | |
| Confirmed | Keider Montero | TEX | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.41 | 4 | 4.5 | 124 | -151 | OVER | 35 | 44.96% | 55.04% | 2.36% | 250 | 533 | 28.26%, +254 | 7.98%, +1153 | 8.15% | 3.79% | -0.31% | -7.82% | Slight Damp | 15.96% | 1.26126 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Chris Sale | COL | L | Elite | L | 7 | 7.56 | 7 | 7.5 | 111 | -142 | OVER | 55 | 47.78% | 52.22% | 3.10% | 196 | 370 | 35.10%, +185 | 19.46%, +414 | 15.93% | 9.88% | 1.32% | -1.81% | Slight Damp | 24.33% | 0.09046 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Chase Dollander | ATL | R | Mid | S-M | 5 | 5.17 | 5 | 100 | 96.34%, -2630 | 88.60%, -777 | 88.60% | 75.46% | Slight Damp | 15.45% | 0.60260 | High | Stable | High | Tail-Driven | Stable Tail Environment | ||||||||||||
| Confirmed | Sean Burke | SD | R | Low | S-M | 4 | 4.59 | 4 | 3.5 | -132 | 117 | OVER | 78 | 66.94% | 33.06% | 11.69% | 194 | 430 | 48.33%, +107 | 31.30%, +219 | 18.25% | 9.64% | 14.32% | 12.43% | Neutral | 18.25% | 1.06030 | High | Stable | High | Tail-Driven | Tail-Friendly Environment | |
| Confirmed | Michael King | CHW | R | Mid | S-M | 5 | 5.47 | 5 | 5.5 | -120 | -101 | UNDER | 39 | 46.48% | 53.52% | 5.57% | 182 | 370 | 31.03%, +222 | 9.47%, +957 | 10.60% | 5.47% | -4.43% | -11.81% | Neutral | 18.93% | 0.45152 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Nolan McLean | LAA | R | Elite | M-L | 7 | 7.46 | 7 | 6.5 | -144 | 113 | OVER | 80 | 60.11% | 39.89% | 4.42% | 130 | 244 | 46.47%, +115 | 33.84%, +196 | 23.25% | 15.08% | 2.99% | 4.77% | Boost | 23.25% | 0.09848 | High | Stable | High | Tail-Driven | Tail-Friendly Environment | |
| Confirmed | Reid Detmers | NYM | L | Mid | M-L | 6 | 6.01 | 5 | 6.5 | 108 | -127 | UNDER | 33 | 39.51% | 60.49% | 6.71% | 225 | 410 | 25.92%, +286 | 7.84%, +1176 | 8.76% | 4.54% | -4.85% | -11.77% | Neutral | 15.67% | 0.26793 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Seth Lugo | SEA | R | Low | M-L | 5 | 5.57 | 5 | 5.5 | 104 | -127 | OVER | 49 | 48.24% | 51.76% | 1.54% | 220 | 430 | 32.66%, +206 | 16.18%, +518 | 11.50% | 6.03% | 1.41% | -2.69% | Neutral | 20.22% | 0.40813 | Mid | Convertible | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment | |
| Confirmed | Emerson Hancock | KC | R | Low | M-L | 5 | 5.01 | 4 | 4.5 | 103 | -125 | OVER | 53 | 55.83% | 44.17% | 8.83% | 223 | 465 | 38.50%, +160 | 19.23%, +420 | 13.65% | 7.09% | 7.54% | 1.53% | Neutral | 13.65% | 0.70803 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail Environment |
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