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Strikeout projections · Thursday, September 10, 2026
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Table density
Lineup Status | Pitcher | Opponent | Pitcher Hand | Pitcher Tier | Leash | Baseline Ks (Median) | Mean Ks | Mode Ks | Strikeout Line | Main Line Over | Main Line Under | Best Edge Side | Distribution Shape Score | Model P(O) | Model P(U) | Main Line Best Edge (deVig) | Odds +1 | Odds +2 | P(K ≥ +1) | P(K ≥ +2) | P(K ≥ +3) | P(K ≥ +4) | Odds +1 Edge (VIG) | Odds +2 Edge (VIG) | Split Influence Level | Right Tail Mass % | Expected CRPS (x100) | Ceiling Conversion Confidence | Ceiling Profile | Tail Environment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Confirmed | Martin Perez | TB | L | Low | S-M | 2 | 2.43 | 2 | 2.5 | -166 | 130 | UNDER | 34 | 43.70% | 56.30% | 15.24% | 162 | 403 | 22.78%, +339 | 9.54%, +948 | 3.80%, +2534 | 1.24%, +7975 | -15.39% | -10.34% | Slight Damp | 10.04% | 8.14446 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Nick Martinez | ATL | R | Low | M-L | 3 | 3.20 | 3 | 3.5 | 100 | -116 | UNDER | 35 | 39.76% | 60.24% | 8.46% | 235 | 520 | 22.09%, +353 | 10.19%, +881 | 4.61%, +2069 | 1.77%, +5540 | -7.76% | -5.94% | Slight Damp | 10.73% | 3.99893 | Low | Fragile | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Cristian Javier | PHI | R | Low | S | 3 | 3.36 | 3 | 3.5 | -147 | 122 | UNDER | 39 | 43.20% | 56.80% | 13.72% | 158 | 353 | 24.92%, +301 | 11.97%, +735 | 5.65%, +1671 | 2.27%, +4308 | -13.84% | -10.11% | Damp | 12.60% | 3.44898 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Zack Wheeler | HOU | R | Elite | M-L | 7 | 7.34 | 7 | 6.5 | -122 | 103 | OVER | 77 | 58.62% | 41.38% | 5.89% | 154 | 310 | 44.91%, +123 | 32.38%, +209 | 22.00%, +354 | 14.11%, +609 | 5.54% | 7.99% | Neutral | 22.00% | 0.10882 | High | Stable | High | Tail-Driven | Tail-Friendly Environment |
| Confirmed | Jacob deGrom | SEA | R | Elite | M | 7 | 7.09 | 6 | 6.5 | -122 | 108 | OVER | 67 | 55.29% | 44.71% | 1.95% | 164 | 330 | 41.48%, +141 | 25.72%, +289 | 19.38%, +416 | 12.11%, +726 | 3.60% | 2.47% | Neutral | 19.38% | 0.13530 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) |
| Confirmed | Logan Gilbert | TEX | R | Mid | M-L | 7 | 7.18 | 7 | 7.5 | 112 | -143 | UNDER | 38 | 42.77% | 57.23% | 1.72% | 280 | 520 | 29.67%, +237 | 9.59%, +943 | 11.57%, +765 | 6.53%, +1431 | 3.35% | -6.54% | Slight Boost | 19.17% | 0.08629 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Ryan Feltner | NYY | R | Low | S-M | 5 | 4.69 | 4 | 4.5 | -101 | -125 | OVER | 41 | 50.22% | 49.78% | 2.73% | 215 | 434 | 33.06%, +202 | 9.81%, +919 | 10.56%, +847 | 5.18%, +1829 | 1.31% | -8.92% | Boost | 19.62% | 0.95980 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
| Confirmed | Max Fried | COL | L | Low | M | 6 | 6.04 | 6 | 5.5 | -104 | -115 | OVER | 63 | 55.88% | 44.12% | 7.08% | 193 | 406 | 40.06%, +150 | 23.23%, +330 | 16.03%, +524 | 9.00%, +1011 | 5.93% | 3.47% | Neutral | 16.03% | 0.25906 | High | Stable | Mid | Tail-Supported | Balanced Tail (Accessible) |
| Confirmed | Jared Jones | CHW | R | Mid | S-M | 6 | 6.20 | 6 | 6.5 | 124 | -158 | OVER | 36 | 42.55% | 57.45% | 0.39% | 250 | 500 | 28.59%, +250 | 8.87%, +1028 | 10.17%, +883 | 5.42%, +1744 | 0.02% | -7.80% | Boost | 17.73% | 0.22232 | Mid | Convertible | Low | Centered | Fragile Tail Environment |
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