AMP Analytics Arena
Model by KSplit
Model Diagnostics — Live Season Log
Games Logged 4016
Updates in real time
Total Games Logged
4016
season to date
MAE (Ks)
1.756
median absolute error
Avg Signed Error
0.041
direction of bias
Within ±1K Rate
50.30%
within ±2K: 74.48%
01 — Ceiling Profile
How Do Ceiling Profile Labels Perform?
Tracks how often each ceiling profile delivers upside signal. High | Tail-Driven games show the highest 2+ over rates as the log grows — this table confirms or challenges that signal in real time.
Low | Centered
n = 2020 games
2+ Ks Over Line
15.94%
Actual Ks Over the Line
45.00%
2+ Ks Under Line
36.34%
Mid | Tail-Supported
n = 1526 games
2+ Ks Over Line
21.17%
Actual Ks Over the Line
51.25%
2+ Ks Under Line
32.44%
High | Tail-Driven
n = 470 games
2+ Ks Over Line
21.28%
Actual Ks Over the Line
55.11%
2+ Ks Under Line
32.13%
02 — Right Tail Calibration
Mean-Based Right Tail Tables
When the model assigns a given upside probability, how often does it actually happen? O/E near 1.00 means the model is well-calibrated at that bucket. Values above 1.0 mean reality exceeds the model's prediction — below 1.0 means the model is over-calling it.
| +1 tail calibration (bucketed by P(+1)) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P(+1) bucket | Hits | n | Hit % | |
| <30% | 422 | 1463 | 28.84% | |
| 30–39.99% | 497 | 1530 | 32.48% | |
| 40–49.99% | 300 | 847 | 35.42% | |
| 50–59.99% | 56 | 150 | 37.33% | |
| 60–69.99% | 6 | 23 | 26.09% | |
| 70%+ | 0 | 2 | 0.00% | |
| Total Games | 4015 |
03 — Tail Environment
Strikeout Environment Classification
Environment type tracks the structural conditions around each game's K distribution.
| Environment Type | Sample Size | Actual Ks: 2+ Ks Over the Line | Actual Ks Exactly 1 Over Line | Actual Ks Exactly 1 Under Line | Actual Ks: 2+ Ks Under the Line | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragile Tail Environment | 1936 | 15.65% | 13.12% | 19.21% | 35.80% | |||
| Low Tail Environment | 80 | 23.75% | 7.50% | 21.25% | 31.25% | |||
| Balanced Tail Environment | 1026 | 20.57% | 13.55% | 17.74% | 30.41% | |||
| Balanced Tail (Accessible) | 504 | 21.83% | 13.69% | 17.46% | 32.74% | |||
| Tail-Friendly Environment | 288 | 20.14% | 13.89% | 13.19% | 34.38% | |||
| Stable Tail Environment | 182 | 24.18% | 15.38% | 15.93% | 25.27% | |||
| All Environments | 4016 |
04 — Median by Tier
Exact Hits by Pitcher Tier
Exact hits become less frequent as distributions widen in higher strikeout tiers.
Elite
n = 505 games
MAE
1.966
Median Exact Hit
17.62%
Within ±1
44.38%
Within ±2
68.27%
Mid
n = 1167 games
MAE
1.849
Median Exact Hit
17.40%
Within ±1
48.66%
Within ±2
70.16%
Low
n = 2383 games
MAE
1.668
Median Exact Hit
17.92%
Within ±1
52.33%
Within ±2
77.88%
05 — Median Diagnostics & Edge Band
Error Distribution & ROI by Edge Bucket
| Error Buckets | Median | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2K (From Actual) | 12.45% | |||||||
| -1K | 17.53% | |||||||
| Exact Hit | 17.90% | |||||||
| +1K | 14.87% | |||||||
| +2K | 11.73% | |||||||
| Big Miss % ABS Err>2.5) | 25.52% |
| Edge Band (Best Edge) | Sample Size | ROI (Units / Bet) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 0% | 0 | 0.00 | ||||||
| 0–4.99% | 1658 | 0.00 | ||||||
| 5–9.99% | 1290 | 0.00 | ||||||
| 10–14.99% | 690 | 0.03 | ||||||
| 15–19.99% | 263 | -0.04 | ||||||
| 20–24.99% | 81 | -0.11 | ||||||
| 25–29.99% | 30 | -0.02 | ||||||
| 30%+ | 4 | -0.09 |
06 — Over/Under Edge Band Performance
ROI & Unit P/L by Edge Band Bucket
Overs
| Edge Band (Overs) | Sample Size | ROI (Units / Bet) | Unit P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4.99% | 874 | -0.01 | -8.84 |
| 5–9.99% | 713 | -0.04 | -29.45 |
| 10–14.99% | 354 | 0.03 | 11.68 |
| 15–19.99% | 122 | -0.04 | -5.06 |
| 20–24.99% | 40 | -0.15 | -6.03 |
| 25–29.99% | 12 | -0.20 | -2.39 |
| 30%+ | 3 | -0.46 | -1.38 |
| Total | 2118 | -0.02 | -41.47 |
Unders
| Edge Band (Unders) | Sample Size | ROI (Units / Bet) | Unit P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4.99% | 784 | 0.00 | 3.03 |
| 5–9.99% | 577 | 0.06 | 31.81 |
| 10–14.99% | 336 | 0.02 | 7.41 |
| 15–19.99% | 141 | -0.05 | -6.77 |
| 20–24.99% | 41 | -0.06 | -2.57 |
| 25–29.99% | 18 | 0.09 | 1.66 |
| 30%+ | 1 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Total | 1898 | 0.02 | 35.59 |
07 — Rolling Window Summary
Combined P/L Across Edge Bands
L200 All
| Edge Band | Unit P/L |
|---|---|
| 0–4.99% | -4.51 |
| 5–9.99% | -5.10 |
| 10–14.99% | -0.57 |
| 15–19.99% | -0.40 |
| 20–24.99% | 0.00 |
| 25–29.99% | 0.00 |
| 30%+ | 0 |
| L200 Total | -10.58 |
L50 All
| Edge Band | Unit P/L |
|---|---|
| 0–4.99% | -2.25 |
| 5–9.99% | -6.33 |
| 10–14.99% | -2.60 |
| 15–19.99% | 1.94 |
| 20–24.99% | 0.00 |
| 25–29.99% | 0 |
| 30%+ | 0 |
| L50 Total | -9.24 |