KSplitAnalytics
Model Diagnostics — Live Season Log
Games Logged 942
Updates in real time
Total Games Logged
942
season to date
MAE (Ks)
1.761
median absolute error
Avg Signed Error
-0.165
direction of bias
Within ±1K Rate
49.47%
within ±2K: 75.27%
01 — Ceiling Profile
How Do Ceiling Profile Labels Perform?
Tracks how often each ceiling profile delivers upside signal. High | Tail-Driven games show the highest 2+ over rates as the log grows — this table confirms or challenges that signal in real time.
Low | Centered
n = 417 games
2+ Ks Over Line
16.31%
Actual Ks Over the Line
43.65%
2+ Ks Under Line
37.17%
Mid | Tail-Supported
n = 409 games
2+ Ks Over Line
19.80%
Actual Ks Over the Line
50.86%
2+ Ks Under Line
30.07%
High | Tail-Driven
n = 114 games
2+ Ks Over Line
21.93%
Actual Ks Over the Line
53.51%
2+ Ks Under Line
33.33%
02 — Right Tail Calibration
Mean-Based Right Tail Tables
When the model assigns a given upside probability, how often does it actually happen? O/E near 1.00 means the model is well-calibrated at that bucket. Values above 1.0 mean reality exceeds the model's prediction — below 1.0 means the model is over-calling it.
| +1 tail calibration (bucketed by P(+1)) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P(+1) bucket | Hits | n | Hit % | |
| <30% | 66 | 215 | 30.70% | |
| 30–39.99% | 118 | 397 | 29.72% | |
| 40–49.99% | 73 | 238 | 30.67% | |
| 50–59.99% | 23 | 71 | 32.39% | |
| 60–69.99% | 4 | 17 | 23.53% | |
| 70%+ | 0 | 2 | 0.00% | |
| Total Games | 940 |
03 — Tail Environment
Strikeout Environment Classification
Environment type tracks the structural conditions around each game's K distribution.
| Environment Type | Sample Size | Actual Ks: 2+ Ks Over the Line | Actual Ks Exactly 1 Over Line | Actual Ks Exactly 1 Under Line | Actual Ks: 2+ Ks Under the Line | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragile Tail Environment | 335 | 14.33% | 13.43% | 17.91% | 39.40% | |||
| Low Tail Environment | 79 | 24.05% | 7.59% | 20.25% | 31.65% | |||
| Balanced Tail Environment | 267 | 21.35% | 11.24% | 19.85% | 27.34% | |||
| Balanced Tail (Accessible) | 143 | 16.08% | 11.89% | 19.58% | 34.27% | |||
| Tail-Friendly Environment | 59 | 22.03% | 6.78% | 15.25% | 35.59% | |||
| Stable Tail Environment | 58 | 24.14% | 13.79% | 13.79% | 27.59% | |||
| All Environments | 941 |
04 — Median by Tier
Exact Hits by Pitcher Tier
Exact hits become less frequent as distributions widen in higher strikeout tiers.
Elite
n = 140 games
MAE
1.964
Median Exact Hit
16.79%
Within ±1
43.80%
Within ±2
70.80%
Mid
n = 227 games
MAE
1.739
Median Exact Hit
19.82%
Within ±1
49.55%
Within ±2
74.76%
Low
n = 577 games
MAE
1.715
Median Exact Hit
17.05%
Within ±1
50.97%
Within ±2
76.85%
05 — Median Diagnostics & Edge Band
Error Distribution & ROI by Edge Bucket
| Error Buckets | Median | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2K (From Actual) | 15.3% | |||||||
| -1K | 18.3% | |||||||
| Exact Hit | 17.6% | |||||||
| +1K | 13.6% | |||||||
| +2K | 10.5% | |||||||
| Big Miss % ABS Err>2.5) | 24.6% |
| Edge Band (Best Edge) | Sample Size | ROI (Units / Bet) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| < 0% | 0 | 0.00 | ||||||
| 0–4.99% | 381 | 0.00 | ||||||
| 5–9.99% | 285 | 0.00 | ||||||
| 10–14.99% | 149 | -0.01 | ||||||
| 15–19.99% | 77 | -0.02 | ||||||
| 20–24.99% | 30 | -0.34 | ||||||
| 25–29.99% | 12 | -0.20 | ||||||
| 30%+ | 4 | 0.03 |
06 — Over/Under Edge Band Performance
ROI & Unit P/L by Edge Band Bucket
Overs
| Edge Band (Overs) | Sample Size | ROI (Units / Bet) | Unit P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4.99% | 219 | -0.044 | -9.68 |
| 5–9.99% | 189 | -0.054 | -10.23 |
| 10–14.99% | 118 | -0.015 | -1.75 |
| 15–19.99% | 64 | 0.008 | 0.49 |
| 20–24.99% | 24 | -0.393 | -9.42 |
| 25–29.99% | 11 | -0.130 | -1.43 |
| 30%+ | 3 | -0.307 | -0.92 |
| Total | 628 | -0.0525 | -32.94 |
Unders
| Edge Band (Unders) | Sample Size | ROI (Units / Bet) | Unit P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–4.99% | 162 | 0.069 | 11.16 |
| 5–9.99% | 96 | 0.106 | 10.19 |
| 10–14.99% | 31 | 0.019 | 0.58 |
| 15–19.99% | 13 | -0.172 | -2.24 |
| 20–24.99% | 6 | -0.140 | -0.84 |
| 25–29.99% | 1 | -1.020 | -1.02 |
| 30%+ | 1 | 1.020 | 1.02 |
| Total | 310 | 0.0608 | 18.85 |
07 — Rolling Window Summary
Combined P/L Across Edge Bands
L200 All
| Edge Band | Unit P/L |
|---|---|
| 0–4.99% | 4.04 |
| 5–9.99% | -1.52 |
| 10–14.99% | 7.21 |
| 15–19.99% | 1.64 |
| 20–24.99% | -1.75 |
| 25–29.99% | 0 |
| 30%+ | 0 |
| L200 Total | 9.62 |
L50 All
| Edge Band | Unit P/L |
|---|---|
| 0–4.99% | 9.06 |
| 5–9.99% | -3.98 |
| 10–14.99% | 6.85 |
| 15–19.99% | 2 |
| 20–24.99% | -0.51 |
| 25–29.99% | 0 |
| 30%+ | 0 |
| L50 Total | 13.42 |