Glossary

Projected minutes if he plays

The minutes the model projects for the player tonight, assuming he plays. Props are void when a player sits, so every number on the page is priced as if he suits up.

Minutes come first in the model because everything else scales off them. They account for the injury report, confirmed starting lineups once they post, rotation changes, and a team's total of 240 minutes.

Injury report tag: Q (questionable), Doubtful, or Out

The player's latest official injury report status. No tag means he isn't listed.

Questionable and doubtful players carry a lower chance of playing, and their minutes are partly handed to teammates. If you think a listed player will play or sit, use the Playing? toggle to see what changes.

In tonight's confirmed starting lineup

Shown once the team's starting lineup is confirmed. When a player who usually comes off the bench is starting, his minutes projection moves up with it.

Projected three-point attempts if he plays

How many threes the model expects the player to attempt. It starts from how many threes his team should take tonight, based on pace and the opponent, then gives him his share of them based on his role and his minutes.

Attempts are the most stable part of a three-point projection. When a 3PM prop misses, check whether he got his attempts; if he did, the miss was shooting variance.

Projected threes made if he plays

Projected attempts times his projected three-point percentage. Shooting percentage is noisy over small samples, so a hot or cold stretch is pulled back toward his longer history before it counts.

This is an average. The probabilities on each line come from the full range of outcomes around it, which is what matters for overs and ladders.

The books' main 3PM line, the side the model favors, and its probability

The most widely offered three-pointers made line for the player. O means the model leans over, U means under, judged against the market's own no-vig price.

The percentage is the model's probability for that side. Fair odds, best price and EV follow it.

Alternate overs: one, two, or three threes above the main line

Ladder rungs above the main over. On a 2.5 main line, +1 is 4+ threes, +2 is 5+, and +3 is 6+.

Each rung shows the threes needed, the model's probability, fair odds, the best price, and EV. The further up the ladder, the less often it hits and the more each bet depends on a right-tail game, so expect long losing stretches between hits.

The model's chance of the bet hitting, blended with the market

Every probability on the page is the model's number blended with the market's de-vigged price. The model brings what it knows about minutes, role, and matchup; the market brings information the model doesn't have. Tested on seasons the model never trained on, the blend beats the market's price on its own.

Read it as a frequency: a 20% rung should hit about one time in five over many bets.

The odds at which the bet breaks even at the model's probability

The American odds that exactly match the probability. A 20% chance is fair at +400. Any price longer than fair odds is a positive-EV bet by the model's number; anything shorter is negative.

The best available price and the book offering it

The best current price on that side among FanDuel, DraftKings, theScore, Caesars, and Novig. A Novig price only counts when enough money is available to bet at it. Prices refresh through the day as the books move, and a book that pulls a prop drops off the page.

Expected value per unit risked at the best price

How much a bet returns on average per unit risked, at the model's probability and the best price: probability × decimal odds − 1. EV +8% means the bet is expected to return 8 cents per dollar risked over the long run.

EV is a long-run average. A single bet still wins or loses, and longshots swing hard.

Who's Playing tool: set a player in or out and reprice his team

Model uses the model's own read of the injury report. Out takes the player off the floor: his minutes go to his teammates and their attempts, makes, probabilities, and EV update. Plays treats a questionable or doubtful player as fully in, taking minutes back from his teammates.

Changes show in green and red next to each number. Reset puts the team back to the model's view.

It's a quick estimate of a full model rerun. Tested on this season's real late scratches, it reproduced about two-thirds of the full model's change on teammates' threes when a rotation player was ruled out. The full model also shifts minutes toward players in the same role, which the quick version only approximates.

Show only players with a line at or above this EV

Type a number, for example 5, to see only players with at least one line (main or any rung) at 5% EV or better. Players you've set to Out or Plays always stay visible.

When the page last picked up new prices

Projections come from the last full model run, which reruns every 15 minutes and right away when starting lineups or lineup changes post. Prices refresh every few minutes, and every minute in the hours before tip. Games drop off the page once they tip.