AMP Analytics Arena

Frequently Asked Questions

Common questions about AMP, the MLB, NHL and NBA models, and your plan.

About AMP

What is AMP Analytics Arena?

AMP Analytics Arena is a multi-sport player prop analytics platform built by Anthony, Michael and Patrick. It covers three sports today:

  • MLB: the KSplit strikeout model, plus matchup research and pitch tracking
  • NHL: Pat's shots on goal and anytime goal model
  • NBA: the KSplit 3-pointers made (3PM) model and the Who's Playing tool

The website shows every projection, probability and price so you can research your own bets. The Discord is where our analysts post picks.

Who builds each model?

KSplit is Michael's modeler name. He builds the MLB strikeout model and the NBA 3PM model and runs the platform. Pat (@IIPatll) builds the NHL model and is working on an MLB model for next season. Anthony (@DFSProdigy23) posts +EV plays across every major sport in the Discord.

Is AMP a betting service?

No. AMP does not place bets or accept wagers. We publish projections, probabilities and analysis for informational and educational purposes. What you do with them, and where, is up to you.

Do you give picks?

Yes, in the Discord: model alerts and analyst plays across NBA, NHL, NFL and MLB. The website doesn't post picks; it shows the full numbers behind every player so you can find your own spots.

The models

How does the MLB strikeout model work?

Each projection is a full probability distribution of strikeouts, not a single number.

1. Strikeout rates by handedness

Pitcher and hitter strikeout rates per plate appearance, split vs. lefties and righties.

2. Pitch-mix matchups

How each hitter performs against the pitches this pitcher actually throws.

  • Whiff rates
  • Chase rates
  • Called strike rates

3. Batters faced

A projected workload based on pitch counts and leash, updated when lineups are confirmed.

4. Distribution model

These combine into the probability of every strikeout total, which gives:

  • The median
  • The over/under probability
  • The ladder probabilities

5. Calibrated and graded

Probabilities are checked against results and the closing line, and adjusted where they've run hot or cold. Results are on the MLB Diagnostics page. The full write-up is on the Methodology page.

How does the NHL model work?

Pat's model projects every skater's shots on goal and goals for the night. Like the MLB model, it produces a full distribution: the chance of each shot total from 0 to 7+, and of 0, 1 or 2+ goals.

The NHL Dashboard compares those probabilities with the sportsbook's line and odds, with fair odds and expected ROI for the over, the under and the anytime goal bet. Click any player's name to see his full shot distribution. Goalie saves, team stats and line combos live under the NHL menu.

How does the NBA 3PM model work?

The KSplit NBA model projects 3-pointers made in steps:

  • Minutes for every player, accounting for the injury report
  • Each player's share of his team's projected 3-point attempts
  • His make rate, turned into a full distribution of 3s made
  • Calibration, then a blend with the betting market

The NBA 3PM page shows the probability, fair odds, best price and EV on every main line and on the +1, +2 and +3 ladder rungs. Calibration and results are public on the NBA Diagnostics page.

What is the Who's Playing tool?

On the NBA page, set any player to Out or Plays. His minutes move to his teammates and every projection, probability and EV on his team reprices instantly, so you can act on news before the books adjust. It's a fast estimate of a full model rerun; the Discord alerts only use the official injury report.

Why don't projections always match the result?

Props are high-variance. A pitcher gets pulled early, a skater's line gets shuffled, a shooter goes cold. The models price the range of outcomes and how likely each one is; none of them can tell you what happens in a single game. A 60% over loses 4 times in 10, and that's the model working.

Using the site

How often are the boards updated?
  • MLB: daily, refreshing as starting pitchers and lineups are confirmed
  • NHL: whenever Pat's model publishes, with the update time shown at the top of the dashboard
  • NBA: prices refresh throughout the day as the books move, with the time shown at the top
Where do the odds come from?

We pull prices from major US sportsbooks such as FanDuel, DraftKings and Caesars through a market data feed. The NBA page shows the best available price across books. Odds move constantly, so always confirm the price in your sportsbook before betting.

How do you compare the model to the odds?

Odds are converted to the probability they imply. Where we have both sides of a market, the sportsbook's margin (vig) is removed first, so the model and the market are compared fairly. Edge is the model's probability minus the market's; expected ROI turns that into expected profit per unit risked at the listed price.

What's free and what needs a subscription?

Free for everyone: Yesterday's MLB Board, the MLB and NBA Diagnostics pages, the Glossary, Methodology, Video Tutorials, Odds Calculators and Reviews.

Website Access unlocks today's boards and tools for all three sports: the MLB dashboard, Model Plays, Pitcher Distributions, Matchup Board and Pitch Tracking; the NHL Dashboard and distributions; and the NBA 3PM page with Who's Playing.

I'm new. Where should I start?

Watch the Video Tutorials, then open a board and hover any column header for a one-line definition. The Glossary has the full definitions for every sport, and the MLB Dashboard Guide walks through the strikeout board column by column.

Plans & billing

What do the plans cost?
  • Website Access: $24.99 a month, every model and tool on the site
  • Discord: $24.99 a month, picks and analysis across every sport
  • Bundle: $40 a month, both, at the lowest price we offer

Full details are on the Pricing page.

Is there a free trial?

Yes. Website Access comes with a 7-day free trial for new members. A card is required at signup and you're billed when the trial ends, unless you cancel before then. One trial per member.

How do I get into the Discord?

Link your Discord on your account page before you buy Discord or the Bundle. Your access role is then granted automatically when your subscription starts. If you already bought first, link it now and the role follows.

Can I cancel or pause?

Yes. From your account page you can cancel anytime, and you keep access until the end of the period you've paid for. You can also pause for 30 or 60 days instead: billing stops during the pause, and so does access.

Accuracy & responsible use

How accurate are the models?

No model can guarantee outcomes. What we can show is calibration: when a model says 60%, does it hit about 60% over time? The MLB Diagnostics and NBA Diagnostics pages track every graded projection, including the misses, with no selective reporting.

Is AMP legal to use?

AMP publishes analysis only and doesn't facilitate wagering. You're responsible for following the laws where you live, including age and location rules for sports betting.

What if betting stops being fun?

Bet only what you can afford to lose, and take a break when it stops feeling like a game. If gambling is causing problems for you or someone close to you, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

Still have questions? Reach out directly, or review the Terms of Service & Policies.

KSplitAnalytics@gmail.com